Morningstar values SpaceX at $63 per share, a 53% discount to the upcoming IPO's $135 offering price. Their valuation stems from mathematical modeling rather than skepticism, forecasting three scenarios with probability-weighted outcomes. Even at this discounted valuation, the firm gives SpaceX significant benefit of the doubt in two scenarios, assuming successful Starship reusability and commercialized orbital data centers.

The most optimistic "Moonshot" scenario values SpaceX at $1.97 trillion ($154/share) but carries only a 7% probability. This scenario assumes both Starship achieves 85% reusability and orbital data centers become commercially successful. The "No Go" scenario, assigned 43% probability, assumes orbital data centers fail to offer advantages over terrestrial ones. The "Minimum Viable Product" scenario, deemed most likely at 50%, values SpaceX at $23.50 per share.

Morningstar's methodology explicitly excludes SpaceX's ambitious moonshots and Mars colonization plans, treating them as options with no net present value. At the $135 offering price, investors pay a $72 per share "option premium" for the right to participate in SpaceX's future projects. The final valuation reflects the significant technical uncertainties surrounding both Starship development and orbital AI infrastructure.