A $1.75 trillion valuation for SpaceX in an IPO would be justifiable, according to PitchBook analyst Franco Granda. The prospect of raising up to $50 billion in the listing would fund Starship scale-up, Starlink expansion, and direct-to-cell development. Granda's sum-of-parts framework, comparing SpaceX's launch and Starlink businesses to peers, supports this lofty sum.

At this valuation, investors would ascribe SpaceX a price-to-sales ratio exceeding 100-times, far above Palantir's 77-times ratio. The analyst emphasizes the unique combination of Starlink growth, launch dominance, and direct-to-cell as justifying the premium. SpaceX bulls argue investors need to look further out to justify the target valuation, projecting $150 billion in revenue by 2040, a tenfold increase from last year's $16 billion.

If investors accept this growth outlook, the sales-based multiple could collapse to roughly 12 times. However, Granda warns of significant volatility, akin to Tesla on steroids, due to limited shares post-listing. Regulatory bottlenecks, particularly FAA delays on Starship modifications, pose the highest near-term risk to the 2026 launch cadence and timeline.

SpaceX, aiming for an IPO in 2026 to fund an 'insane flight rate' for Starship and a moon base, would surpass Meta's size if successful.