OpenAI's advertising business is reportedly on track to miss its own five-year revenue forecast by 90%, according to Emarketer. The AI lab had projected $2.5 billion in ad revenue for the current year and $100 billion by 2030. However, Emarketer's data suggests that standalone chatbots like ChatGPT, Microsoft Copilot, Google AI Mode, and Amazon Alexa for Shopping will generate less than $1 billion in ad revenue this year, reaching only $5.41 billion by 2030.

Analysts question OpenAI's ambitious projections, which assume massive capture of search ad budgets, dominance in a mature chatbot ad market, and outperformance of all historical ad formats. Emarketer principal analyst Nate Elliot stated that these assumptions are unlikely to be met. Ad spend within AI assistants is expected to constitute only 8% of total digital ad spend this year, with most of that appearing alongside AI content rather than directly within chatbots.

Despite OpenAI's recent efforts to court small businesses and introduce more sophisticated ad products like conversion-optimized ads, hitting their revenue targets requires significant growth in audience size, average revenue per user, and ad products simultaneously. The company's aggressive timeline for launching its ad business, including a self-serve platform within months, contrasts with industry norms. Furthermore, user growth for ChatGPT, while substantial, is showing signs of deceleration, potentially undermining a key assumption in OpenAI's ad forecast.