Growing anxiety about AI's impact on jobs and the economy is a major issue. AI capabilities have surged, and a future with AGI could bring huge benefits but also risks. Past technological transformations boosted long-run living standards but often caused short-term harm like lower wages and inequality. Can we avoid such harm this time?

Historically, policy came after the fact. AGI differs: by automating intelligence, it could outpace adaptation. Economic impacts are uncertain—from minimal disruption to massive labor displacement.

Reasons for hope: stronger institutions, better social science, and improved policy tools. We need flexible responses tied to empirical triggers to avoid acting too late or overreacting. Three challenges include lack of granular labor-market data.