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Economists Warn: AI's Job Market Impact May Arrive Sooner Than Expected

New York Times Business •
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Divergent predictions highlight the stakes: Vinod Khosla forecasts 80% job replacement by 2030, while Elon Musk calls work 'optional.' Economists emphasize focusing on transition costs rather than endpoints. Robert Seamans of NYU urged policymakers to prepare for career shifts within two to five years. The Yale Budget Lab's Martha Gimbel stressed that past innovations like digital health records took decades to adopt, but AI's rapid uptake in workplaces suggests a faster, more disruptive path. Companies already report using AI agents for coding and research, raising alarms about mid-level roles.