Public Markets 24-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 17, 2026, 3:30 AM ET
Geopolitical Tensions and Commodity Markets
Global markets wrestled with escalating Middle East conflict, particularly the fallout from the war with Iran, which sent oil prices rebounding after an earlier 5% slip, while simultaneously causing diesel prices in the US to soar to nearly $5, threatening supply chains globally by increasing transport and agricultural costs. The disruption is having varied effects across industries; Goldman Sachs noted that the largest oil shock on record will impact refined products like jet fuel and diesel more severely than crude itself, while Chinese aluminum producers are poised to benefit from raw material flows being diverted away from the Middle East. The turbulence also led the London Metal Exchange to halt trading due to high volatility, and British Airways extended its flight suspensions to destinations including Amman, Bahrain, Dubai, and Tel Aviv until May 31, compounding travel disruptions already seen with Emirates operating near-empty planes back to Dubai.
Diplomacy, Defense, and Market Fallout
President Trump’s shifting positions on Iran complicated diplomatic efforts, as European allies decisively rejected his demand for warships to form an armada in the Strait of Hormuz, a move that also saw European leaders rule out joining the proposed force. The instability is prompting defense sector adjustments, with the Baltic high-speed rail project facing delays as defense priorities take precedence, and NATO considering reinforcing missile defense capacity in Turkey against Iranian threats. Furthermore, the geopolitical strain is manifesting in niche markets, causing prices for defense metals like tungsten and germanium to jump amid shortage concerns, and driving interest in tangible assets, evidenced by more U.S. states, like Wyoming, which is stashing 2,312 ounces of gold to hedge against economic calamity.
Asia-Pacific Equity & Debt Dynamics
Asian stock markets found support from the broader narrative surrounding artificial intelligence, even as elevated energy prices continued to exert pressure, leading to the notable simultaneous rise in crude and Asian equities. In fixed income, India’s third-largest pension fund is pivoting back to bonds after an extended period of heavy equity buying, potentially offering relief to the country's debt market, while Indonesia’s central bank is widely expected to hold its key interest rate steady to combat currency pressure from the war and fiscal risks. Meanwhile, the fundraising outlook for the Philippines remains highly optimistic, with the local stock exchange CEO forecasting a standout year driven by “mega” IPOs.
Financial Sector Strategy & Private Credit Risks
European financial institutions are preparing for potential contagion from the distressed private credit sector, as Davidson Kempner warns that the problems in direct lending are deeper than acknowledged, a theme echoed by warnings that European lenders must brace for US-style legal action over debt restructuring. This sector faces headwinds, with Morgan Stanley forecasting default rates climbing to 8% in direct lending, partly driven by disruptions in the software industry due to AI advances. Compounding these risks, the financial plumbing supporting the sector is under scrutiny; for instance, the opacity of the Cliffwater Corporate Lending Fund is driving redemptions, and the entanglement between banks and private credit was recently exposed by the clash between Western Alliance and Jefferies.
European Asset Management & Regulatory Shifts
BNP Paribas is planning a near doubling of pretax income from its asset management division by 2030, a strategy built upon its earlier purchase of AXA Investment Managers, with the bank betting that the European private credit boom can defy a downturn in the US market. This confidence stems from the continent's strong financing needs and stricter regulatory environment, which the bank believes will offer protection against mis-selling. On the regulatory front in the UK, the government intends to curb the powers of the Financial Ombudsman Service following its extensive role in the multibillion-pound motor finance scandal, where it was accused of acting as a "quasi regulator." Separately, amid geopolitical uncertainty, the Swiss National Bank largely avoided FX interventions in late 2025, adhering to its promise to the US not to manipulate the franc for economic gain.
Corporate Strategy and Market Structure
Corporate maneuvers continue despite market volatility, with CRH deciding to entirely ditch its London listing, citing low trading volumes and the regulatory burden of maintaining a secondary presence there. In Asia, Beijing is reportedly restricting overseas-incorporated Chinese firms from pursuing Hong Kong IPOs, potentially disrupting a long-standing financial strategy, even as Malaysian companies like Borong topped the latest FT-Statista list of high-growth Asia-Pacific firms. Meanwhile, in the US, despite Nvidia’s higher-than-expected sales forecast, the stock failed to rally, suggesting executives may need a genuine surprise at the upcoming conference to spark a rally in the moribund stock. Furthermore, German fintech Upvest secured $125 million in new funding, valuing the brokerage technology supplier at €640 million.
Energy, Transport, and Inflation Concerns
The persistent strength in oil prices, driven by the Iran conflict, continues to complicate economic planning, prompting Spain's energy minister to warn the EU against suspending the Emissions Trading System (ETS) as a tool to lower energy costs, calling such a move a "big error." This inflationary pressure is being felt keenly in food production, with rising diesel costs severely wreaking havoc on Brazilian soybean exporters who rely on diesel-powered trucks, and in India, where peak power demand is expected to surge to a record high, exacerbating existing energy woes. In corporate travel, the impact is direct, with airlines like British Airways cancelling flights to the UAE following a drone attack, and the world’s largest international carrier, Emirates, operating some flights nearly empty as travelers steer clear of the Gulf region.