European gas prices remain vulnerable to renewed spikes as restricted Gulf LNG flows threaten to leave the Northern Hemisphere entering winter without normal Qatari supply, ING says. Qatar Energy has extended force majeure for some buyers into early November, while LNG flows from the Persian Gulf remain significantly restricted, say ING commodities strategists Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey. The tight supply backdrop leaves the global LNG market particularly exposed as the heating season approaches.

European natural gas prices rise as U.S.-Iran escalations spur supply fears, while demand remains elevated. The benchmark Dutch TTF contract jumps 2.4% to 71.52 euros a megawatt-hour in late morning European trade. While limited supply out of Qatar has pushed gas prices higher, the bigger reason behind the surge in TTF contracts is increased demand, Uni Credit strategists write.

Market fears are growing that Europe is behind schedule with its gas restocking, which will likely lead to sustained high demand at least through the end of 2026. European gas inventories are at 65.09% capacity, around 12 percentage points below levels in August 2025.