Russia's ruling United Russia party will secure a commanding parliamentary majority on Sunday, following the Supreme Court's removal of Yabloko, the only antiwar party, from the ballot. This election, the first since the 2022 invasion of Ukraine, confirms President Vladimir Putin's total control. For two decades, a bargain held: the elite accepted no real power in exchange for predictability, prosperity, and freedom to leave.

Putin systematically dismantled opposition — abolishing gubernatorial elections in 2004, arresting Mikhail Khodorkovsky in 2003, orchestrating the 2012 job swap with Dmitri Medvedev, and eliminating critics like Boris Nemtsov (murdered 2015) and Alexei Ulyukayev (arrested 2016). Since the invasion, decision-making has centralized drastically. Budgets are classified, governors recruit soldiers, and war veterans receive senior posts.

Property rights have evaporated: the Prosecutor General's Office pursues nationalizations, with private asset seizures reaching 42 percent of all M&A value in the first half of this year. Vadim Moshkovich, founder of Rusagro, was forced to transfer 68 percent of his company to the state in May. The Kremlin is eliminating property as an independent power base, leaving the elite with neither influence nor security.