The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise interest rates by a quarter-point on Wednesday to a range of 3.75% to 4%, the first increase since July 2023. The decision comes less than two months before the midterm elections, putting Chairman Kevin M. Warsh under pressure from President Trump, who has demanded lower rates and threatened trade cuts. The Fed will announce its decision at 2 p.m. in Washington, followed by a Warsh news conference at 2:30 p.m.

Financial markets place the odds of a hike above 90%. In July, Beth M. Hammack of the Cleveland Fed, Neel Kashkari of the Minneapolis Fed, and Lorie K. Logan of the Dallas Fed dissented in favor of a rate increase. Officials including John C. Williams of the New York Fed and Christopher J. Waller have signaled that August's higher-than-expected inflation data likely clinches the case for a hike. Zero dissents would signal the Fed's seriousness on inflation.

Economists anticipate another increase in December, though the October meeting days before the midterms may see a pause to avoid political perception. Further adjustments are possible in 2027, but Warsh is unlikely to specify plans given economic uncertainty.