Bond investors are watching President Trump's promise of $5,000 'dividend' checks to every adult citizen if Republicans keep control of Congress after the midterm elections. The roughly $1.3 trillion payoff risks roiling the bond market as Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent seeks to calm it. Trump's dividend promise masks other fiscal and political pressures, coming after his trade wars, affordability crisis, and war in Iran have dented his poll ratings.

Bessent faces a dilemma: the dividends promise risks sending a message that Washington isn't serious about reining in spending, a source of recent anxiety in bond markets. The Treasury Department's plan to buy back long-dated Treasury notes and bonds has already faced criticism from Wall Street pros like Stanley Druckenmiller for going too far, then disappointment from others who thought it didn't go far enough, sending bond yields soaring. Nvidia is under antitrust scrutiny after announcing a partnership with Groq, with regulators examining whether such deals are ways of skirting government scrutiny.

Oil climbs above $102 a barrel on Middle East war worries, with diesel hitting a record $5.98 per gallon.