Martha Muir in New York reports from the G20 energy ministers summit in Houston where the Federal Reserve raised rates by a quarter point to 3.75-4 per cent under chair Kevin Warsh, defying Donald Trump's calls for lower borrowing costs amid inflation from the Iran war energy shock. Harold Hamm, a key Trump backer, announced Continental Resources signed a memorandum with Petróleos de Venezuela to develop an oilfield in Venezuela's Orinoco oil belt, calling it a potential energy renaissance.

A new S&P Global report co-authored by Daniel Yergin urges a "path back to pragmatism" in energy transition discourse. It outlines three scenarios: an emissions reduction pathway targeting 2C warming, a current realities pathway (1.9C-2.8C rise), and a diverging pathways priority reflecting a bifurcated global system. The report highlights how the Iran crisis and Strait of Hormuz closure expose energy-importing developing economies to supply shocks.

Yergin notes global listening sessions revealed developing world energy demand is undercounted, making the transition multidimensional rather than "one size fits all." Emerging markets and developed economies (EMDEs), not just data centres, are driving energy demand growth, requiring tailored approaches for different economic contexts.