Markets 24-Hour Briefing

Public Markets

Last updated: March 13, 2026, 8:30 AM ET

Energy & Commodities

Oil futures settled above $100 for the first time since August 2022 as millions of barrels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, marking the biggest oil market disruption in history. The surge pushed Brent crude to multimonth highs, while uncertainty over Middle East developments prompted Commerzbank to advise investors to avoid Bunds. Energy drillers in central California have resorted to trucking crude barrels 50 miles after a key pipeline idled, highlighting the cumbersome alternatives emerging from supply chain disruptions.

Currency & Fixed Income

The euro fell to its lowest level since August amid broader dollar gains as the Middle East war escalates, while the dollar rose to a 3.5-month high against a basket of currencies as investors seek safe havens. China has raised the yuan fixing for a record 15th straight week, showing continued support for currency appreciation despite volatility from the Iran war. Open interest in European natural gas futures dropped to a five-month low as traders struggle with intense price swings driven by unpredictable Middle East newsflow.

Emerging Markets

Emerging-market stocks are heading for their first back-to-back weekly losses since October as the Middle East crisis shows no signs of abating. India's stock benchmark capped its worst weekly performance since June 2022, while South Africa's stock index has fallen 10% since late February as investors pull away from overheated markets. Hungary's forint is the worst performing emerging-market currency during the Iran war, as a jump in energy prices amplifies existing economic risks ahead of next month's elections.

Corporate & Private Markets

Morgan Stanley shares led losses among major US banks after the lender limited withdrawals from one of its private credit funds, while asset manager stocks fell in tandem amid broader concerns about private credit liquidity risks. Tikehau Capital's private debt head compared the current turmoil on the private credit market to getting stuck at an unwanted event, as high-profile names like Blue Owl Capital, Blackstone, and BlackRock have received redemption caps. Meanwhile, hedge funds managed by Ron Ozer and Doug King notched gains from commodities volatility amid the Iran war.

Real Estate & Infrastructure

UAE real estate bonds are nursing losses as the Iran war threatens to stall a borrowing binge, while JPMorgan Chase will be the anchor tenant of an upcoming office project in Hong Kong's West Kowloon area, marking one of the city's largest leasing deals amid a prolonged downturn. India's Raajmarg Infra Investment Trust's 60 billion rupee IPO was subscribed four times, signaling resilient demand for yield-focused assets amid geopolitical uncertainty.

Technology & Innovation

Berkeley Group Holdings reiterated its profit guidance but warned that the conflict in the Middle East was weighing heavily on risk sentiment. The European Central Bank's Villeroy sounded a warning on private credit liquidity risks, while the heads of Chicago's largest exchanges are calling for a review of the process that has allowed prediction market platforms to grow quickly by listing financial contracts without explicit regulatory oversight.

Global Trade & Supply Chains

The Port of Los Angeles saw total container traffic rise nearly 3% in February as importers brought in goods ahead of the Lunar New Year, when many Asian factories pause production. However, Thai rice exports to the Middle East were halted amid war disruptions, further straining farmers grappling with rising costs. Brazil's soybean shipments have failed sanitary inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions at a crucial time for trade with China.

Regional Developments

Algeria's authorities were thrown a lifeline after Russia's invasion of Ukraine sent energy prices soaring, with hopes that the rise in oil prices driven by the Iran war will offer similar relief. Angola's central bank kept its benchmark interest rate at 17.5%, pausing for the first time since August after oil prices surged because of the US-Israel war on Iran. Meanwhile, the Philippines is bracing for more pain ahead in its labor market due to the Middle East conflict, after joblessness surged to the highest in nearly four years.

Market Sentiment & Strategy

A 60-40 portfolio is no help as war drives stagflation threat, with stocks and bonds falling in tandem on the risk of inflation and slowing growth. Leon Cooperman, the former hedge fund manager, said financial markets are overpriced as stocks have become too costly relative to company profits. The European Central Bank is seen holding rates until 2028 in split from market expectations, even as inflation threats resurface from the Middle East conflict.

Regulatory & Policy

The UK government said it would overhaul its nuclear power sector after a review criticized it for being too risk averse and favoring process over outcomes. The US granted a temporary waiver to buy Russian crude already at sea, freeing up 19 million barrels for purchase. Sweden has boarded a second vessel suspected of belonging to Russia's so-called shadow fleet, stepping up efforts against ships it sees as a security and environmental threat.

Corporate Governance & Leadership

Carlyle is overhauling its European private equity team after poor performance, while Lululemon founder Chip Wilson has cautioned prospective CEO candidates that the company's challenges stem from its board rather than its leadership vacancy. Top Delivery Hero investor Aspex Management threatens leadership change, wanting a strategic review sped up and some businesses sold off.

Private Equity

Last updated: March 13, 2026, 9:30 AM ET

Firm Strategies & European Activity

Vistria appointed David Schuppan and Phil Alphonse as co-heads of its flagship funds, a move designed to support the firm’s evolving scale and strategic priorities amid its growth phase. This leadership restructuring coincides with a broader European growth fund push as managers target the region’s expanding technology and healthcare sectors. Despite a general fundraising slowdown, France remains a steady presence in European private equity, offering a relatively stable environment for dealmaking compared to other markets facing capital constraints.

Secondaries Market Momentum

The European secondaries market is booming, with one observer noting, “Who isn’t selling?” amid a surge in portfolio transactions. High-profile sales include stakes in companies like Vinted and ElevenLabs, underscoring deep liquidity. This activity extends to specialized GP-led transactions, where novel and unexpected offers to transfer assets from general partners are rising. Industry leaders are now focused on the next step for GP-led deals, exploring new structures. To address market fragmentation, General Atlantic entered the secondaries space via a partnership with Clipway, targeting $1 billion for a fund focused on growth equity and late-stage venture capital. Firms like W Capital advocate for structured solutions that keep assets within flagship funds to compound returns in what it predicts will be a more selective “K-curve market.” Meanwhile, a Cliffwater CIO urged a re-evaluation of NAV “squeezing” practices in secondaries, citing arbitrage issues for evergreen investors. The next generation of professionals anticipates greater specialization in this evolving corner of the market.

Sector Investment Trends

Private equity is diversifying across women’s health segments, with firms like Ardian, Charterhouse, CVC, and L Catterton deploying capital into areas from fertility to menopause care. This targeted approach mirrors a broader trend of thematic investing, seen in data center refrigeration and structural design, where firms are paying high multiples due to AI-driven demand tailwinds. In venture capital, under-the-radar startups are attracting investment, including a phlebotomy robot developer and a company franchising defense manufacturing. The AI agent builder space saw Gumloop land $50 million from Benchmark to empower non-technical employees to create AI workflows. In robotics, humanoid maker Sunday reached a $1.15 billion valuation to build household robots like “Memo,” already securing 1,000 pre-orders. On the consumer front, Quadrivio Group acquired a majority stake in French hair care brand Les Secrets de Loly via its Made in Italy Fund II, signaling continued appetite for branded consumer goods.

Notable Deals & Exits

A landmark potential $30 billion-plus deal involving New Mountain Capital and Holt is highlighting novel approaches to large-scale portfolio transfers. In Southeast Asia, Warburg Pincus is exploring a sale or partnership for digital insurer Oona, reviewing strategic options for the business. Infrastructure fundraising remains robust, with I Squared Capital nearing $10 billion for its next flagship fund amid a sector boom. On the exit front, Arlington Capital sold Forged Solutions Group to JF Lehman & Co., with the managing director noting a rise in M&A disputes as a market factor. These transactions reflect a market where large-cap exits and fund expansions are proceeding despite broader macroeconomic caution.

Fundraising & Market Structure

Fundraising pressures are prompting innovation in how assets are managed and transferred. The rise of structured solutions and the expansion of secondaries into growth equity demonstrate managers adapting to a prolonged fundraising winter. While dry powder remains high, deployment is increasingly concentrated in sectors with clear secular tailwinds, such as AI infrastructure and specialized healthcare. The persistent activity in Europe and the steady flow of large infrastructure commitments suggest that sub-sectors with tangible assets or regulatory moats are attracting capital even as traditional buyout fundraising faces headwinds.

Sector Investment

Last updated: March 13, 2026, 8:32 AM ET

Technology & Infrastructure

AI infrastructure faced power generation challenges as Sam Altman voiced concerns over short-term supply constraints despite long-term optimism.

Real Estate

European real estate credit saw PIMCO's strategic focus with Trausch highlighting opportunities in 2026 amid market volatility.