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Bond Bulls Emerge as Yields Surge Past 5% - Bloomberg

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Phil Serafino Jim Bianco says the Fed has made it clear it will stamp out inflation. Add Jim Bianco to the list of bond investors who are turning bullish now that Treasury yields have moved above 5%. While the selloff may have further to run, bonds look increasingly attractive, says Bianco, a veteran of more than 40 years in the market. A key change lately is that the Fed has made it clear it will do what it takes to contain the inflation that has hurt bonds this year, he says. The math is becoming more favorable, too. Investors who buy the 10-year now would need to see yields rise to around 6% over the next year before price losses wipe out the bond’s income. The return profile is also asymmetric: A percentage-point increase in yields would produce a loss of less than 2%, while a decline of the same magnitude would generate a return of about 13%. Also growing more bullish on Treasuries lately are Pimco, Swiss private bank Lombard Odier and RBC Blue Bay. “I’m getting a big fat cushion for buying bonds at 5.2%,” said Bianco, founder of Bianco Research. “Now’s not the time to be losing your mind over it.” —Ye Xie

A long-time AI bear is turning bullish. A year after calling it the “dot-com bubble on steroids,” Rajiv Jain has been piling into technology stocks since July. The money manager, who built publicly traded GQG Partners into a $150 billion powerhouse, cited improved valuations and stronger demand for computing power for his change of heart. GQG more than tripled its tech allocation in its emerging-market fund to about 35% in August. Tech companies including Taiwan Semi and Samsung now account for 28% of GQG’s flagship international equity fund, up from 5.4% in July. “There have been some things that we’ve clearly underestimated,” Jain told analysts last month. The shift shows how costly it’s been for AI bears. His funds have trailed peers, prompting investors to yank $36 billion since mid-2025 and sending GQG shares to record lows. Jain is among an increasingly rare breed of big fund managers who take risks and strays far from benchmarks with concentrated positions, rather than hugging indexes. On an earnings call last month, he defended the reversal as part of his investment philosophy. “We’ll make mistakes as we have done before,” Jain said. “But I think in the long run, this adaptability has served us very well, because if, for example, things change again, it doesn’t mean we are wedded to these names.” —Vinicius Andrade and Ye Xie