Malcolm Moore in London and Jamie Smyth in New York report that European diesel prices jumped 7 per cent to $1,528 a tonne on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump suggested banning exports. Benchmark futures initially spiked above $200 a barrel before easing to $1,494 a tonne following Energy Secretary Chris Wright's skepticism about a full ban. Trump's comments marked a dramatic reversal from April's pledge that the US would be a "critical lifeline" for global energy supplies during the Iran conflict.

Europe imported 506,000 barrels a day of US diesel in August, according to Kpler data. Experts warn global prices could rise to $350 a barrel if exports stop, as "Europe will try to replace US supply by bidding up the price, but Latin America is also going to be bidding for the same barrels," said Eugene Lindell of FGE Nexant ECA. While cutting exports might ease US prices, it would cause global market chaos given long-term supply contracts.