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CPU Supply Improves, 2026 Notebook Shipments Down 9.4% Despite Cost Pressures

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Trend Force's research shows CPU supply has markedly improved since 2Q26, enabling brands to gradually normalize procurement and manufacturing processes. Persistent increases in DRAM and SSD costs have led brands to accelerate procurement strategies, resulting in shipment volumes exceeding expectations in the first half of 2026.

Core components rise to 68% of BOM costs; cost pass-through becomes key as lower-cost inventory is depleted. Trend Force uses a mainstream model with an MSRP of US$900 in 1Q25—when memory supply was still stable—as its benchmark. At the time, core components including the CPU, DRAM, and SSD accounted for approximately 45% of the system's total BOM cost. Following more than a year of price increases, this share had risen to 68% by 3Q26.

Trend Force estimates that by 3Q26, brands would need to raise the price of a comparable 1Q25 product by approximately 80% to maintain the same gross margin as in 1Q25. Brands are likely to maintain relatively aggressive shipment strategies in the near term, supported by competition for market share, new product launches, stable commercial demand, and existing inventories procured at lower costs.

Advance procurement and these lower-cost inventories can temporarily cushion the impact of rising component costs on retail prices and gross margins. However, as lower-cost inventories across regions are gradually depleted, this cost buffer will diminish.