Every fantasy draft turns on a breakout or two. I pulled every forward who has broken out since 2009-10 to find common traits. Two things carry signal: age and NHL games played. The median fantasy points per game (FPPG) across 1,700 top-100 forward seasons is 1.90, the breakout bar. Of 299 forwards with multiple top-100 appearances, 177 debuted in 2009-10 or later. Of those, 124 held a rolling 41-game FPPG above 1.90 for at least 41 consecutive games. The average age at breakout start was 24 years, 74 days (majority between 21 years, 303 days and 26 years, 88 days). Average experience was 250 games (majority between 142 and 399).

Here are forwards inside that window now:

Ridly Greig, C, Ottawa Senators (24.1 years old, 1.24 FPPG in 247 games): Almost exactly the breakout age and experience, and will get a top-six role.

Jack Quinn, RW, Buffalo Sabres (25.0 years old, 1.27 FPPG in 260 games): In the mix for scoring lines and possibly top power-play time.

Matt Coronato, RW, Calgary Flames (23.8 years old, 1.28 FPPG in 192 games): The Flames' teardown has thrust him into the limelight.

Bobby Brink, RW, Minnesota Wild (25.2 years old, 1.15 FPPG in 214 games): Was on his way to 20 goals with the Flyers before the trade cut opportunities; now Minnesota has flexibility.

Logan Stankoven, C, Carolina Hurricanes (23.5 years old, 1.27 FPPG in 183 games): ...