The prediction market Kalshi permanently barred former New York representative George Santos and fined him $71,356 after finding evidence of insider trading, marking the platform's first such ban. Santos placed bets on whether he would attend President Trump's State of the Union address in February, posting on social media that he planned to attend but ultimately did not appear. Kalshi's compliance department established reasonable cause that Santos engaged in trading activity related to his attendance, and he was the only individual not to cooperate with the investigation.

Santos declined to comment and later posted on social media criticizing the lifetime ban. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also fined Santos $35,000 last month over the same bets, finding he engaged in manipulative activity designed to affect swap prices. Kalshi referred the matter to the Justice Department and the CFTC.

Prediction markets like Kalshi have grown rapidly, attracting billions in trades on events from elections to reality TV, but face scrutiny over gambling law compliance and insider manipulation risks. In April, three political candidates were caught betting on their own races, and last week the CFTC fined a White House teleprompter operator $172,000 for betting on Trump's speeches. Santos was previously charged with fraud in 2023, expelled from the House, sentenced to seven years in prison, and released last fall after Trump commuted his sentence.