Markets 3h

Public Markets

Global Markets & Geopolitics

Markets faced simultaneous shocks from the Iran conflict, AI-related stress, and emerging credit cracks, challenging the traditional buy-the-dip strategy. President Trump’s claim that the Iran war will end “very soon” tumbled oil prices and eased supply concerns for aluminum, which extended its retreat from a four-year high. The conflicting signals from Washington created volatile cross-asset moves, with the Singapore dollar holding steady against the U.S. dollar as a potential oil-price pullback offered support.

Energy & Commodities

The surge of oil above $100 a barrel prompted India’s RBI to prepare for greater intervention in currency and bond markets to combat inflation risks and rupee pressure. That same price pressure drove Indian margin funding to its lowest since November as investors reduced leverage. In Australia, the war is projected to boost fiscal revenues from LNG and coal exports while squeezing household gasoline budgets. Meanwhile, aluminum’s prior surge propelled Zhang Bo of China Hongqiao to a $48 billion fortune, though the recent pullback reflects easing Middle East supply disruptions.

Currencies & Fixed Income

Japanese government bonds rose in tandem with U.S. Treasurys as traders assessed the geopolitical and interest-rate outlook. The Indian rupee’s slide triggered direct RBI support measures, while the Singapore dollar’s stability benefited from the oil-price correction. These moves highlight how central banks in export-oriented economies are navigating volatile commodity prices and shifting U.S. policy expectations.

Corporate & Sector Moves

Carmignac Gestion backed activist Palliser Capital in its campaign to improve governance and shareholder value at South Korea’s LG Chem. In the EV sector, CATL reported a fourth-quarter profit beat despite cooling demand and higher metal costs, showcasing resilient earnings in a challenging environment. India’s telecom auction saw spectrum prices cut after operator interest waned, signaling sector-specific stress distinct from the broader commodity-driven market pressures.

Domestic U.S. & Legal

The Supreme Court’s internal debate over emergency cases was on display in a rare joint appearance by Justices Jackson and Kavanaugh, offering differing judicial philosophies amid high-stakes litigation. In New York, Mayor Mamdani adopted a cautious tone following a terror-related incident at Gracie Mansion, with the event’s market impact remaining contained thus far.

Private Equity

Private Equity

Founders Fund secured $6B for its latest growth fund, following a $4.6B close last year for follow-on investments in portfolio companies. This rapid fundraising underscores strong investor confidence in the firm’s ability to scale late-stage tech ventures amid ongoing market volatility.

Sector Investment

Real Estate

Private real estate funds saw capital targets decline in January 2026 compared to the prior year, even as the number of new funds launched continued to rise, pointing to a fragmented and competitive fundraising environment where investor caution is constraining deal sizes.