Following a convincing 52-28 win against Ole Miss on Saturday, Florida coach Jon Sumrall stated bluntly, "We have not arrived." And yet here they are. Florida changed the playoff picture in Week 4, setting up a head-to-head trifecta of results and ranking implications with Ole Miss and LSU -- the type of SEC logjam the selection committee has seen before and needed the head-to-head tiebreakers to help sort out. Florida has now scored 40 or more points in its first four games for the first time since 2001, when Steve Spurrier was the head coach.

It was one of the few convincing wins this week against a ranked opponent. Texas wasn't pretty in its escape of Tennessee. Indiana wasn't pretty at home against unranked Northwestern. "I'm sure everybody is disappointed because they still have the national championship hangover," coach Curt Cignetti said after his game, "but I can't do anything about that." Georgia? It was the model of a complete team in its dismantling of an unranked Oklahoma team.

If only Georgia and Texas played each other during the regular season to settle it on the field. For now, it's settled here, with this week's projection of the top 12. Based on historical knowledge and an understanding of the criteria and protocol, here's a look at what the selection committee might do if the rankings were today.

Jump to: Ranking | Bracket Projecting the top 121. Texas Longhorns (4-0) Why they could be here: Texas is not a flawless No. 1 team -- not with 11 penalties for 115 yards and a relatively ineffective offense for most its game with Tennessee. But the Longhorns went on the road and won in one of the SEC's toughest venues, earning their second win this season against a ranked opponent.

The win against Ohio State should continue to increase in value as the season progresses. Why they could be lower: Arch Manning was sacked six times, he had one interception and no touchdowns, the Longhorns were held to 61 rushing yards and just 3-of-12 on third downs. They lost the turnover battle.

Need to know: If Texas continues to find ways to win -- even if it's ugly -- its schedule is difficult enough that the selection committee would likely keep the Longhorns as its top team. The undisciplined play, though, and problems on offense that were exposed against the Vols, could come back to haunt Texas if it is in a debate with another team that has the same record and looks better on film and in the analytics. Toughest remaining game: Nov. 14 at LSU.

This will be the second of three road games in the month of November when the committee is paying the closest attention. 2. Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) Why they could be here: The Texas win at Tennessee will help Ohio State in the committee meeting room, as the Buckeyes' lone loss was by one point on the road to what should be the group's top team at this point. While the Buckeyes were outplayed and outcoached in the fourth quarter at Texas, the committee probably won't penalize them too much for one quarter that early in the season on the road.

The Buckeyes had no problem dismantling an average Illinois team Saturday to win their first Big Ten game of the season. If there is a significant gap between two teams' strength of schedule ranking, the group typically leans toward the contender that has played a more challenging schedule, and right now, the Buckeyes have that edge over Georgia. Ohio State also moved up one spot in part because Ole Miss tumbled down after its double-digit loss at Florida.

Why they could be lower: Georgia's win against Oklahoma will give its strength of schedule somewhat of a boost, and the undefeated Bulldogs have looked like a national title contender, albeit against significantly weaker opponents. Ohio State's defense raised some questions after the Illini ran for 199 yards and averaged six yards per carry. The committee only ranks teams based on what they have done to date, and Ohio State is still looking for its first win of the season against a ranked oppon...