America has consistently misjudged China, from the 1949 Communist takeover to current tensions. After World War II, Washington was shocked when Mao Zedong's Communists defeated Chiang Kai-shek's Nationalists, sparking the "who lost China?" debate. State Department officials were scapegoated despite overseeing a population of 550 million.

Early diplomats in Chongqing and Yan'an misread Mao's totalitarian nature, impressed by staged discipline while ignoring mass starvation. This historical amnesia cleared the path for the Vietnam War, as experienced "China hands" were purged from key positions. The diplomatic opening with Nixon and Kissinger in 1972 temporarily eased tensions, framing China as a counter to the Soviet Union.

However, the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown and the Cold War's end reviled the regime. In the 1990s, Jiang Zemin and Zhu Rongji's economic rise led both parties to believe WTO admission would foster liberalization, a view held by President Bill Clinton. This third misjudgment paved the way for current friction.

The article warns that repeating these historical errors regarding the world's most populous nation would be catastrophic, urging President Trump to strike the right balance in his summit with Xi Jinping.