Public Markets 8 Hours

Last updated: March 24, 2026, 12:30 PM ET

Geopolitical Tensions & Energy Markets

Global markets registered palpable unease as hopes for a swift end to the conflict in the Middle East diminished, causing U.S. stock futures to dip and European equities to retreat. Crude oil prices climbed amid sustained fighting between the U.S.-Israel alliance and Iran, though President Donald Trump’s delay of strikes offered a temporary reprieve that many investors viewed skeptically, preferring to trim risk exposure. The conflict is already having severe economic repercussions; Conoco Phillips’ CEO Ryan Lance predicts a flip to contango in the crude market, while the war’s fallout is crippling growth momentum and inflating prices globally, according to synchronized business surveys. Furthermore, Iran has begun charging transit fees for some commercial vessels navigating the Strait of Hormuz, solidifying Tehran’s leverage over the vital energy conduit.

Corporate Earnings & Sectoral Shocks

The Middle East conflict is causing substantial operational strain across multiple sectors, with United Airlines warning of potential 20% fare hikes if elevated jet fuel costs persist, even as the carrier simultaneously plans to add over 250 planes to boost premium capacity. In agriculture, West Africa’s cocoa and cotton farmers face the steepest consequences from a fertilizer shock stemming from the Iran war, according to commodity trader ETG. Meanwhile, Russia has temporarily halted ammonium nitrate exports, further tightening global crop nutrient supplies already strained by the conflict. On the corporate earnings front, Xiaomi reported a slump in quarterly net profit, caught between soaring memory-chip costs and weak consumer demand, even as its EV sales growth failed to offset slumping smartphone performance.

Dealmaking & Asset Management Turbulence

Activity in the mergers and acquisitions space remains lively despite macroeconomic uncertainty, evidenced by the escalating bidding war for Janus Henderson Group Plc, where Trian Fund Management and General Catalyst raised their all-cash bid to $52 a share to counter a move by Victory Capital. In infrastructure, analysts suggest that potential buyers might need to offer over C$39 per share, representing a premium exceeding 30%, for Boralex Inc. in a takeover scenario. However, the private credit sector is experiencing stress; shares for major alternative asset managers like Ares Management and Apollo fell after Ares placed restrictions on withdrawals from its $10.7 billion private credit fund amid a surge in redemption requests across the industry.

Regulatory Scrutiny & Fixed Income Shifts

Wall Street’s top regulator, the SEC, is reportedly questioning Egan-Jones regarding its bid to resume rating government debt and asset-backed securities, a role it lost over a decade ago; the firm’s ratings on private loans have recently come under fire. In fixed income structuring, U.S. municipal borrowers are embracing a shift toward shorter debt maturities to attract buyers, while institutional players are exploring new digital infrastructure; the NYSE is partnering with Securitize to develop a platform for 24/7 tokenized securities trading. Concurrently, the European Central Bank is initiating fresh checks on banks’ exposure to private credit quality, reflecting growing regulatory wariness, even as BNP Paribas completed significant risk transfer deals tied to €5 billion of loans despite market volatility.

Market Structure & Alternative Investments

Investor appetite is driving substantial premiums for exposure to pre-IPO technology names, exemplified by a newly-listed closed-end fund that has soared over 1,200% above NAV since its debut, fueled by demand for stakes in companies like SpaceX and Anthropic PBC. On the banking front, Bank of Montreal is planning to launch tokenized cash capabilities for institutional clients, allowing for secure, constant fund movement, a development echoed by CME’s partnership to launch a similar service. Elsewhere, in a move reflecting the current volatility, hedge fund Millennium is reportedly considering moving staff to Jersey from Dubai, while BlackRock’s Rick Rieder, having been passed over for the Fed chair role, is now raising capital for his first hedge fund.