The Nasdaq 100 ended last week 4% short of its June 2 record, the last of the big US gauges yet to reclaim its peak. The laggard status is largely down to 10 months of divergence beneath the index level that’s rearranged what leads, what lags and who gets to decide those outcomes. While the S&P 500 closed the book on the summer selloff about a month ago and went back to setting records, the Nasdaq 100 is still tallying the bill for the season. The outstanding balance is small, but the insights it offers on this market are not.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. stepped up warnings of tightness in global refining driven by wars in the Middle East and between Moscow and Kyiv, with the bank more than doubling its forecasts for profits from making diesel. “Rising strikes on refineries in the Middle East and Russia have further constrained already-stretched global refining capacity, pushing refined-products margins to new highs,” analysts including Yulia Zhestkova Grigsby and Daan Struyven said in a note. “Diesel remains at the epicenter of the rally.”