Meteorologists expect a quieter than usual Atlantic hurricane season, though experts warn against letting guard down. NOAA forecasts show a 55 percent chance of below-normal activity, with Colorado State University predicting 13 named storms and six hurricanes. Warm Gulf waters from potential El Niño conditions could still fuel intense systems.

Florida International University's Haiyan Jiang noted that while storm counts may drop, outliers remain common. The western tropical Atlantic runs warmer than normal, but cooler eastern waters may offset some development potential. Atmospheric pressure patterns and instability could boost activity where storms do form.

Landfall probabilities remain significant despite overall seasonal predictions. Forecasters estimate a 32 percent chance for the entire US coastline, with 15 percent odds along the East Coast and 20 percent for the Gulf Coast region. Last year's season produced no US landfalls, yet Hurricane Melissa devastated Jamaica as a Category 5 storm, causing nearly $9 billion in damage.

The forecasts highlight why coastal residents shouldn't rely on seasonal averages for safety planning. Even below-normal years can produce catastrophic hurricanes, making preparation essential regardless of statistical predictions.