Tristan H. Cockcroft, senior writer for fantasy baseball and football at ESPN and FSWA Hall of Fame member, explains how to determine the best weekly matchups using Adjusted Fantasy Points Allowed (Adj. FPA).

For Week 4 2026, 2026 full-season data is used, switching to recent five-week numbers after Week 5. Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (at Carolina Panthers, Sunday Night Football) highlights quarterbacks, joining Josh Allen, Brock Purdy and Tyler Shough with 16+ fantasy points in each of the season's first three weeks. Caleb Williams and Deshaun Watson combined averaged 0.59 fantasy points per passing attempt against the Panthers.

Others to like: Trevor Lawrence, Jacksonville Jaguars (at Cincinnati Bengals) and Bryce Young, Panthers (at Lions). Running backs highlight Aaron Jones Sr., Minnesota Vikings (vs. Miami Dolphins), favored by 11.5 with favorable game script history. Others to like: David Montgomery, Houston Texans (vs. Dallas Cowboys) and D'Andre Swift, Chicago Bears (vs. New York Jets).

Matchups to avoid: Jalen Hurts, Philadelphia Eagles (vs. Los Angeles Rams) due to inconsistent protection, and Javonte Williams, Cowboys (at Texans) despite Texans' run defense struggles. The analysis calibrates points-allowed data relative to schedule difficulty to rank all 32 opposing defenses for opposing players at all four skill positions.