Two months before the midterms, Democrats are devoting vast financial resources to red states like Ohio, Iowa and Texas, daring to hope their party can reclaim the Senate with victories in a series of states President Trump won in 2024. New Hampshire Democrats are alarmed that the seat left open by Senator Jeanne Shaheen's retirement could slip from their grasp.

The expected primary matchup is Representative Chris Pappas, 46, against former Senator John E. Sununu. A recent University of New Hampshire poll shows Pappas trailing narrowly. Pappas warned in a fund-raising email, “We’re losing,” and emphasized the national stakes, saying they can’t afford to lose any Democratic-held seat.

Despite New Hampshire’s history of electing Democrats — no Republican has won the Senate since Kelly Ayotte in 2010, and no Republican has won the presidency since 2000 — Democrats caution the state is purple, not blue. Sununu’s candidacy, after a decade of weak Republican recruitment, has triggered promises of major GOP spending. The Senate Leadership Fund pledged $17 million, while Senate Majority PAC plans $10.2 million in ads.

Pappas is also countering a progressive primary challenger, Karishma Manzur, who has narrowed his lead. He stresses that flipping the Senate majority requires holding all current Democratic seats.