The Opinions This week in politics: Midwest realignment and what’s next for conservatives. Sept. 26, 2026 Video Will the Midterms Bring a Political Realignment? This week in politics: Midwest realignment and what’s next for conservatives. The midterm elections are still six weeks away, but Republicans are already looking ahead to 2028. In this episode, the Opinion contributor Robert Siegel and the contributing writer E.

J. Dionne Jr. are joined by Timothy P. Carney, a columnist for The Washington Examiner and a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, to talk about the week’s big news in American politics.

The three discuss who will lead the G. O. P. in 2028, the challenges Republicans will face before then and how the news media reluctantly took center stage this week.

Will the Midterms Bring a Political Realignment? This week in politics: Midwest realignment and what’s next for conservatives. Below is a transcript of an episode of “The Opinions.” We recommend listening to it in its original form for the full effect. You can do so using the player above or on the NYTimes app, Apple, Spotify, Amazon Music, You Tube, i Heart Radio or wherever you get your podcasts.

The transcript has been lightly edited for length and clarity. Robert Siegel: Hi, I’m Robert Siegel, and this is a conversation about politics with — as always — Times Opinion contributor, E. J.

Dionne. Welcome again. E.

J. Dionne Jr.: Great to be with you, as always. Siegel: Nice to see you.

And joining us for the first time is Tim Carney, columnist for The Washington Examiner, and senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. Thank you for joining us. Timothy P.

Carney: Thank you. It’s a pleasure to join you guys. Siegel: Great to have you.

Dionne: Great to be with you, Tim. Siegel: We are recording on Thursday morning. It is less than a month and a half until Election Day — a midterm election that will decide whether the Republicans retain control of the House and the Senate.

And also some 36 state governorships are up on the ballot; 18 currently held by Democrats, 18 held by Republicans. In this conversation, the media’s reluctant centrality in this election year, and also the implications of what happens this year on 2028. But we begin by looking at the middle of the country, the country’s midsection, from the Rust Belt to the Farm Belt that stretches as far west as Nebraska, as far north as the Dakotas.

Are potential Democratic successes conceivably omens of a realignment in the middle of the country? E. J., you’ve been traveling recently; why don’t you start? Dionne: Yeah. Donald Trump is dragging down Republicans, even in some of the most Trump-y states.

I was in Indiana for a project on building community, and in Kansas to write about the surprisingly strong challenge that Democrat Adam Hamilton, a Methodist minister, is making to the Republican senator, Roger Marshall. Hamilton was actually ahead in a recent poll, by a couple of points, in Kansas, which is actually a more complicated state than we often acknowledge. But there hasn’t been a Democrat elected to the Senate there since 1932.

So if something’s happening in Kansas, something is really happening. Several things struck me. One is in both Indiana and Kansas, Trump’s approval rating is down to the 40s.

The farm crisis is a real thing. You’ve got the cost of tariffs and how that has made the business life of farmers much more difficult. You’ve got the high cost of fertilizer and diesel fuel as a result of the war in Iran.

And so, you’ve really got a lot of discontent. And I think one of the other things that’s happening is that the cultural issues, they’re there. Republicans are using them.

Even though Adam Hamilton is a rather mainstream Methodist — nothing radical about his theology — they’re attacking him as a “woke” pastor. If Republicans can’t run against a Democrat as anti-religious, they’re going to make him a heretic. But I think what’s really interesting is that, if the Democ...