Iran and its allies now control key oil shipping routes, enhancing Tehran's leverage in its war with the United States. Recent military escalations, particularly in Yemen, have shifted momentum toward Iran. The Houthis captured a Red Sea island, expanding their ability to disrupt shipping. Oil prices jumped to $110 per barrel, increasing pressure on President Trump ahead of fall elections. Saudi Arabia, reliant on the Red Sea after Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz, faces a Houthi blockade and attacks on oil facilities. A drone strike shut down a Saudi pipeline on Friday, which Trump attributed to Iran. Despite US naval blockades and sanctions, Iran's regional influence grows as Gulf allies question the US security guarantee. Analysts note Iran has expanded conflict scope without triggering full-scale war.

Gregory Brew of Eurasia Group observed that Houthi success in Yemen has shifted the regional balance back toward Iran. While Tehran provides weapons and logistics to the Houthis, the group maintains some independence. The reduced shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, despite US naval escorts, signals diminishing returns for Iran's control there.

Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman urged Trump to act against the Houthis, but the president declined, citing Houthi assurances against fighting the US. This reluctance undermines traditional US dominance in the region, leaving Gulf states vulnerable to Iranian-backed attacks and forcing them to reconsider their security arrangements.