Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to three destinations in Tigray after forces linked to the Tigray People’s Liberation Front seized the airport in the regional capital. The move follows the TPLF’s recapture of the regional administration and its rejection of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s interim government, raising the risk of a full‑scale conflict. Edward Bach of Verisk Maplecroft warned that the newly formed Alliance for Survival, which includes the TPLF, Fano militia, Oromo Liberation Army and four smaller groups, could stretch federal forces across multiple fronts, prompting greater reliance on aerial strikes that threaten civilians. The two‑year conflict that ended with a 2022 peace deal caused over half a million deaths, and analysts note the federal government now has stronger drone capabilities while the TPLF is more fragmented. The suspension highlights renewed tensions in northern Ethiopia and the potential for broader military engagement.

The rebel coalition announced on Sunday its goal to remove Abiy’s government and install a transitional administration. The alliance comprises seven armed groups, each with distinct regional bases and objectives. While the federal government’s tactical advantages include drone stockpiles, the TPLF’s limited heavy weaponry and personnel could shape the conflict’s dynamics. Analysts stress that any resurgence of fighting would likely intensify civilian exposure to aerial operations, underscoring the humanitarian stakes amid the escalating political crisis.

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