India is on course for its driest monsoon in 17 years as a strengthening El Niño curbs rainfall, threatening crop yields and raising food-price risks. Cumulative rainfall during the June to September monsoon season is 15% below the long-term average so far, according to the India Meteorological Department. If the deficit persists, it would be the weakest monsoon since 2009, when precipitation was 18% below normal. The weather office had forecast a 10% shortfall for this season back in May.

Dead fish lie on the cracked bed of the partially dried-up Sanjay Lake in New Delhi, India. Photographer: Amarjeet Kumar Singh/Anadolu/Getty Images. The situation underscores growing concerns over agricultural output and inflationary pressures in Asia’s third-largest economy. Prolonged dry conditions could strain water reservoirs and impact kharif crop planting, particularly for rice, pulses, and oilseeds.

Meteorologists warn that El Niño’s influence is intensifying, disrupting typical weather patterns across the Indian subcontinent. While isolated rainfall events may offer temporary relief, the overall seasonal trend remains concerning. Authorities are monitoring reservoir levels and preparing contingency measures to mitigate potential supply shocks.

The India Meteorological Department continues to update its forecasts, with current models suggesting limited improvement in the coming weeks. Farmers and policymakers alike are bracing for a challenging harvest season, with food security emerging as a key policy focus amid worsening climatic conditions.