This World Cup final pits Spain (4/6 to lift the trophy) against defending champions Argentina (5/4). Spain have won all four knockout matches in 90 minutes while Argentina needed extra-time against Cape Verde and Switzerland, plus late wins over Egypt and England. Since Euro 2004, 15 of 20 major tournament finals have been won by the team with an extra day's rest — advantage Spain.

The fatigue factor suggests Argentina could crumble if they fall behind early. The recommended play is Spain -1 Handicap at 100/30 with Sky Bet, paying on any Spanish victory by two or more goals. This mirrors the Inter Milan vs PSG Champions League final where the fresher side dominated.

A second angle exploits both teams' fouling tendencies. Spain average 12.5 fouls per 90 in major tournaments; Argentina's opponents average 14. Referee Slavco Vincic awards 23.6 fouls per game in the Champions League. The 11/10 BuildABet combining both teams to commit 13+ fouls offers value.

Pep Guardiola's early Rodri prediction has proven accurate as Spain's midfield controls proceedings.