Wolves have already dropped and Burnley hover on the brink, leaving London’s two clubs to battle for the final safe spot. West Ham sit 17th, two points ahead of 18th‑placed Tottenham, with only five games left. Leeds and Nottingham Forest have stretched their leads to eight and five points respectively, turning the drop‑zone into a two‑team showdown.

Form favours the Hammers. After a goalless draw with Crystal Palace, Nuno Espírito Santo still boasts a run of one loss in five, lifting West Ham to 1.6 points per game since January. Tottenham, meanwhile, have endured a 15‑match winless streak, their only recent boost the return of James Maddison, who remained unused against Brighton. Injuries have gutted Spurs, while West Ham field an almost full squad.

Opta’s 10,000‑simulation model now assigns Tottenham a 58.3% chance of relegation, versus West Ham’s 36.9%. Spurs face tougher trips to Aston Villa and Chelsea, clubs they have failed to beat in recent visits, while the Hammers host Arsenal and travel to Brentford and Newcastle. With the safety threshold hovering around 38 points, West Ham’s recent surge gives them the edge.