Tottenham sit 17th with 40 points, two ahead of West Ham who linger in 18th after a 2-1 loss at Arsenal. Both clubs know one misstep will relegate them alongside Wolves and Burnley as Nottingham Forest and Leeds have already secured safety. Sunday’s clash sees West Ham travel to Newcastle, while Spurs face Chelsea on Tuesday.

Opta’s 10,000‑simulation model rates Spurs as strong favourites, assigning them a 19.54% relegation risk versus West Ham’s 80.46%. The data shows Spurs expected to finish with 40 points, just enough to edge Hammers’ projected 39. Historically, Newcastle has yielded two wins from four visits for West Ham, whereas Chelsea remains a fortress for Spurs, who have only one Premier League victory at Stamford Bridge in 33 attempts.

De Zerbi’s defensive overhaul has seen Tottenham concede just five goals in their last five games, the best expected‑goals against record in the league. Antonín Kinský’s form between the sticks adds confidence, while West Ham grapple with back‑to‑back defeats to Brentford and Arsenal. With a two‑point cushion and superior goal difference, Spurs need merely two draws to stay up, a scenario that now looks realistic.

Fans of both London sides will tune in as the final fixtures decide the season’s harshest outcome. A win for West Ham at St James’ Park could overturn Tottenham’s slim advantage, but the Hammers must also navigate a tough Everton test after their Newcastle game. Ultimately, survival hinges on which club capitalises on its remaining chances.