Michael Carrick has been given a stay of execution by Manchester United after their 3-0 loss at Old Trafford increased pressure on the club's eighth permanent boss since Sir Alex Ferguson's retirement. Research for Between the Lines shows United's managers have mostly overperformed relative to expected points over the last decade. United's total of 669 points is the fifth-highest in the Premier League, but the Sky Sports expected points model puts them on 613, meaning they have taken 56 points more than expected. Since 2016, only Everton have outperformed their expected points by a bigger margin. On a per-game basis, Carrick ranks as the biggest overperformer of their recent managers, averaging 1.85 points per game from an expected average of 1.37 over his tenure. Carrick underperformed this season, taking three points less than expected, but last season he guided United to a third-placed finish on 71 points with an expected total of 61. United 'should' have finished two places lower based on the expected table. However, results have flattered performances, and Carrick's exploits last season raised expectations of what he could achieve over a full season.
The core question remains: what if United aren't an elite team underperforming but a mid-table team whose results have made them look better than they are in the post-Ferguson era? If the managers aren't really to blame, what does this mean for Carrick's future and the club's true level?
Source: Sky Sports Champions League · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing