This analysis delves into the USMNT's World Cup performances since 1990, using advanced statistics like expected goals (xG) to assess whether common narratives about the team's progress align with the data. The team's World Cup history is a mixed bag: overwhelmed in 1990, overachieving in 1994, disappointing in 1998, reaching a high in 2002, and generally performing adequately but not exceptionally in subsequent tournaments, with a notable qualification failure in 2018.

Despite a perceived lack of progress over the last decade, the stats paint a nuanced picture. In 1990, the U.S. was thoroughly outplayed, with opponents generating significantly more xG than the Americans. The 1994 World Cup, hosted in the U.S., saw the team overachieve statistically, benefiting from fortunate outcomes to advance despite opponents creating more dangerous chances. The narrative of overachievement in 1994 is statistically supported, as the team's actual results were better than their xG suggested.

The 1998 World Cup saw the U.S. eliminated early in a tough group. While the team didn't play well enough to advance, statistical analysis suggests that fairer results, like draws, were possible in some matches, particularly against Germany and Iran. The overall trend indicates that while the team has shown flashes of competitiveness, consistent statistical dominance or even parity against top-tier opponents has been rare.