About a quarter of the way through the club season, the tables in Europe's top leagues are misleading. In the Premier League and Bundesliga, 14 teams -- including Ipswich Town, Paderborn and Tottenham Hotspur -- sit within six points of the top four. In Ligue 1 it's 13, and in La Liga 14 teams are within six points of the relegation zone. With only a partial picture of results, expected goals (xG) provide a clearer read on who is truly good, unlucky or simply fortunate.
Lazio exemplify the 'lucky and good' category. Despite finishing seventh or worse in Serie A for three straight years and enduring an ongoing fan protest against president Claudio Lotito -- driving home attendance to a league-worst 9,515 -- they've dropped just two points in nine matches and sit tied with Inter atop the table. But their 22 goals from 15.5 xG suggests a scoring slump looms.
Atletico Madrid thrive on 'dark magic,' consistently outperforming xG differentials over Diego Simeone's 12-year tenure. Their league goal differential (+504) outpaces their xG differential (+346.0) by 46%, thanks to elite finishing from Antoine Griezmann and Angel Correa, and shot-stopping from Jan Oblak.
Manchester City, meanwhile, nearly packed a season's worth of xG fortune into one match -- a 5-3 win over Sunderland in which they generated just 2.8 xG.
Source: ESPN Soccer · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing