For most of the past 15 years, the men's Ballon d'Or was dominated by Lionel Messi (eight-time winner) and Cristiano Ronaldo (five). Now that both have aged out, a new generation is vying for the award. Kylian Mbappé, Lamine Yamal, and Harry Kane are the betting favorites, with Kane and Yamal both at +100 odds.
Voting closed on Monday for the award, which will go to the player who achieved the most between the start of the 2025-26 club season and the end of the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Based on past winners, the 30-man short list can be narrowed quickly.
Eliminate anyone who played for Real Madrid last season: Jude Bellingham, Mbappé, Vinícius Júnior. Despite Mbappé's talent and World Cup Golden Boot (10 goals), Real Madrid won only minor trophies and finished behind Barcelona. The Ballon d'Or isn't for club underachievers.
Next, eliminate anyone who didn't win a trophy: Bruno Fernandes, Sadio Mané, Julián Quiñones. Historically, trophy success is a key factor in winning the award.
Source: ESPN Soccer · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing