Even Connor McDavid has a down year. In 2024-25, he slipped from 3.21 fantasy points per game to 2.60, then climbed right back to 3.21. That's the bounceback game: separating skaters who are declining from those who caught bad variance, injuries or linemate roulette. Going back to 2009-10, 59 forwards clearing 1.7 FPPG have suffered a drop of 0.35 or more and later climbed back above their career average, a feat they pulled off 78 times. Evgeni Malkin bounced back four times, Matt Duchene five. On defense, 20 players have done it off that same bar, with Kris Letang, Roman Josi, Ryan Pulock and Shayne Gostisbehere each rebounding twice.

Last season alone, Jason Robertson, Mikko Rantanen, Mika Zibanejad and Zach Hyman shook off ugly 2024-25 campaigns, while Charlie McAvoy, Adam Fox, Noah Dobson and Brock Faber did the same on defense. Every one rewarded whoever drafted them at a discount.

Bounce-back forwards include Auston Matthews (2.89 career FPPG, 2.56 last season). His offense stalled without Mitch Marner. The verdict is a clean yes: Matthews is a Rocket Richard-threat at a discount. Mitch Marner (2.20 career, 1.96 last season) had a soft landing in Vegas. The floor is still a top-50 forward.