Value is value, no matter where or how you find it. That is the aim of this weekly ESPN betting column, which looks for edges across spreads, moneylines, totals and defensive player props. Ben Solak leans on player evaluation and the X's and O's, Seth Walder relies on statistical models to find plus-expected value bets, mainly on defense, and Matt Bowen, a former NFL safety, predicts matchups and winners from tape study. Mike Clay also supplies his top predicted anytime touchdown scorers for Week 6.
Bowen's Game of the Week is the Houston Texans vs. Jacksonville Jaguars matchup (Jaguars -2.5, total 42.5) at Wembley Stadium in London, airing at 9:30 a.m. ET on NFL Network. Bowen expects a pass-heavy script for Houston. C.J. Stroud has completed 72.3% of his throws over the past two games since Nico Collins returned from a hamstring injury, and the Texans traded for Marvin Harrison Jr. this week. Houston's run game remains a problem, averaging only 79 rushing yards per game with David Montgomery sidelined and Woody Marks starting.
On the other side, Jacksonville's coach Liam Coen is expected to attack the Texans' zone coverages, which Houston plays on 77% of coverage snaps, the second-most in the league. Play-action and leveled concepts should be used to create throwing windows. Jacksonville's defense has allowed a league-low 2.9 yards per carry, which Bowen cites as a reason Houston will struggle on the ground.
All bets are tracked as flat one-unit wagers, with results recorded throughout the season. Odds are from DraftKings and subject to change.
Source: ESPN NFL · Summarized by HeadlinesBriefing