Mike Clay’s 2026 rookie outlook pins Las Vegas’ first‑overall pick Fernando Mendoza as the season’s leading passer, projecting 3,052 yards and 14 touchdowns across 14 starts. Behind him, third‑rounder Carson Beck and fourth‑rounder Cade Klubnik scrape modest numbers, underscoring a thin quarterback class. Historically, first‑round QBs earn starts by Week 4, so Mendoza should see the field soon.

Wide‑out projections crown Tennessee’s rookie Carnell Tate with 1,065 receiving yards and five scores, while New Orleans’ Jordyn Tyson trails close behind. In the backfield, Arizona’s third‑overall running back Jeremiyah Love is slated for 1,129 rushing yards and seven touchdowns, echoing the strong rookie performances of recent top‑seven rushers. Seattle’s Jadarian Price offers a comparable threat with 915 yards and eight scores.

Overall, Clay’s statistical model suggests rookie output will be uneven, with passing production clustered around Mendoza and rushing led by Love and Price. Defensive standouts like top‑drafted sack king David Bailey remain unlisted, hinting at later‑season surprises. These projections give fantasy owners a hierarchy for drafting and set expectations for teams relying on rookie impact. Quarterback depth will likely stay thin through the first half.