Aug 28, 2026, 07:09 PM ET The US Open begins Sunday, and with it come many intriguing storylines. Carlos Alcaraz missed the last two majors due to a wrist injury but will return in New York -- and is the defending champion. With biggest rival Jannik Sinner out, will Alcaraz be the one to beat? On the women's side, two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka has had a rough hard-court season and will lose her No. 1 ranking unless she wins a third US Open title.

Can she do it? Who will surprise in the next two weeks? Whom should we watch? Our experts weigh in on these pressing questions and more. What do you expect from Alcaraz this tournament? D'Arcy Maine: It's tough to say. Having played zero singles matches since April and no best-of-five-sets matches since January, it feels like a tall order for him to return at the US Open completely untested and defend his title.

He opted to skip any of the lead-in events out of an abundance of caution, but that decision leaves so many questions. How will his health fare if he plays seven matches in two weeks? Is he mentally and physically ready to play five-setters after such a long layoff? We just don't know. He did play alongside Serena Williams in the mixed doubles event this week, and the pair advanced to the quarterfinals, but it's hard to read too much into that.

If anyone can overcome such a long absence and win the title it's Alcaraz, but it hardly feels like a guarantee at the moment. Bill Connelly: The idea of first testing your wrist out in a grueling best-of-five format in New York heat and humidity is a little bit scary. It wouldn't be a surprise if he just couldn't find his fastball yet and was forced to find his form in the fall Asian swing.

But his draw is friendly -- he wouldn't play a top-20 opponent until the fourth round (likely either Alexander Bublik or Tommy Paul, against whom he's a combined 7-2), and if he can make it that far, he might be in position to find fifth gear. Rust and proof of concept are working against him, but he's still Carlos Alcaraz, and we know he has a run in him if he can get out of the gate clean. Aishwarya Kumar: During the first mixed doubles match with Williams, Alcaraz just wouldn't rip a forehand in the way he's used to.

He looked tentative. That to me is an indication that he either is not mentally ready to go there or is physically still finding his pace, his momentum, his strength. That's not a great sign the week before he has to defend his US Open title.

That said, Alcaraz is the kind of player who wouldn't be in New York if he weren't fully healed and ready to give it his all. So, I can imagine a situation where he finds his rhythm in the first few rounds -- the draw is very much in his favor here -- and then finds momentum leading into the fourth round, which should be his first real test. Simon Cambers: Honestly, not that much.

Wrist injuries are a nightmare -- the perceived wisdom is that it usually takes as long as you are out to get back to your best -- in which case Alcaraz is severely underdone coming here. The idea that his wrist will be good enough to play and win seven best-of-five matches seems unlikely, to say the least. This is Alcaraz we're talking about, though, and he's capable of great things, even without matches under his belt and the confidence that hours of competition bring.

He looked decent in the mixed doubles but not amazing. If he makes it to the second week and doesn't have a setback, that'll be a good result. Sabalenka will have to win the US Open title to retain her No. 1 ranking.

Who do you think will come out of this tournament as the women's No. 1? Maine: As Sabalenka hasn't quite looked herself in recent months, the only thing I feel completely certain about is that she won't hold the top spot at tournament's end. She would need to win her third consecutive US Open title, and I just don't see that happening right now. She has looked too vulnerable of late and has lost to several surprising opponent...