NCAA tournament upsets are fading in the NIL era, with only 13 outright underdog wins last year—the fewest since the 64-team field began in 1985. The Elite Eight featured just top-3 seeds, matching the chalkiest quarterfinals in tournament history. Analysts attribute this to financial disparities: less than 10% of players earning $100,000+ via NIL attended non-power conferences in 2023-24, per Opendorse.

Mid-majors struggle to retain talent, with coaches citing roster turnover and inability to match power-conference spending. Saint Peter’s Peacocks, once a 15-seed Cinderella, now exemplify the rarity of small-conference success.