The 2026 men's basketball tournament round of 16 tips off with premium matchups across four days of elite competition. ESPN's betting expert Mark Zinno breaks down his top selections, starting with Thursday's games featuring Purdue against Texas and Houston facing Illinois. The trade-off for minimal early upsets means basketball fans get four straight days of the most competitive hoops you'll see all season.

Zinno targets Purdue's team total OVER 77.5 points against Texas, citing the Boilermakers' status as the nation's most efficient offense. Texas' 253rd-ranked 3-point defense struggles against Purdue's eighth-best 3-point shooting attack. For Houston-Illinois, he backs the Cougars -3.5, emphasizing Houston's 44th-ranked 3-point defense against Illinois' heavy reliance on perimeter scoring. Both teams rank in the bottom 100 for adjusted tempo, promising a methodical defensive battle.

Friday brings Duke versus St. John's, where Zinno sees value in the Red Storm +6.5. St. John's has climbed to a top-10 adjusted defensive efficiency rating under Rick Pitino, holding Kansas star Darryn Peterson to 5-of-15 shooting. The expert also selects Tennessee in the Eliminator game, doubting Iowa State can survive without Joshua Jefferson against the Volunteers' 14th-ranked defense.