ESPN Research identifies 28 teams with at least a 10% chance to reach the College Football Playoff this season. The new 12-team format guarantees spots for each Power 4 conference champion, making any team with a shot at winning the Big Ten, SEC, Big 12 and ACC a legitimate CFP contender. Notre Dame also receives an automatic bid if it finishes in the top 12 on Selection Day.

Coaches offer varying estimates on how many teams can legitimately compete for the national title. Alabama coach Kalen De Boer suggests at least 10 teams, while Ohio State's Ryan Day pegs it around 15. Texas coach Steve Sarkisian thinks 14-15 teams, and South Carolina's Shane Beamer believes the range is 15-20.

ESPN Analytics lists 31 teams that could be considered by the CFP selection committee, ranging from favorites to long shots. Texas leads with a 69.9% chance to make the playoff, followed by Ohio State at 75.7% and Notre Dame at 74.4%. The analysis considers analytics, historical committee preferences, and team schedules.

The toughest tests vary by team, with Texas facing Ohio State in Week 2, Ohio State traveling to USC on Halloween, and Notre Dame hosting Miami in November. Committee preferences include convincing wins and strong schedules, while concerns center on road performance and multiple losses.