RBA Raised Key Rate to Counter Upside Price Risk, Remains Alert

Australia’s central bank raised its key interest rate to 4.6% two weeks ago due to rising inflation risks, warning that delaying action could be costly. The Reserve Bank of Australia cited upside price pressures and the ongoing Middle East conflict as key influences on its decision, noting that future rate moves will depend on inflation trends and exchange rate impacts. The RBA has implemented the most aggressive tightening campaign among developed economies this year, increasing borrowing costs by 1 percentage point to combat elevated inflation that began before the US-Israeli attack on Iran triggered global energy shocks.

Traders now price in over a 50% chance of another hike in December, with odds rising further into next year. The bank emphasized its mandate to return CPI to the 2-3% target while preserving job gains, though it acknowledged that persistent supply shocks may require slower growth in demand and employment. Members stressed the need to stabilize medium-term inflation at target, even if some persistence stems from factors beyond monetary policy control.

The RBA also noted that falling house prices could weigh more heavily on household spending than expected, adding to downside risks as Australia’s housing market slump deepens and consumer confidence declines amid high borrowing costs and strong inflation.

رفع بنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي سعر الفائدة الرئيسي إلى 4.6% قبل أسبوعين بسبب مخاطر ارتفاع التضخم، محذراً من أن التأخير في اتخاذ الإجراءات قد يكون مكلفاً. أشار بنك الاحتياطي الأسترالي إلى ضغوط الأسعار الصاعدة والصراع المستمر في الشرق الأوسط كعوامل رئيسية أثرت على قراره، مشيراً إلى أن التحركات المستقبلية للفائدة ست dépend على اتجاهات التضخم وتأثيرات أسعار الصرف. قام البنك بتنفيذ أكثر حملة tightening aggressive among developed economies هذا العام، زيادة تكاليف الاقتراض بنسبة 1 نقطة مئوية للتصدي للتضخم المرتفع الذي بدأ قبل هجوم الولايات المتحدة-إسرائيل على إيران، الذي أثار صدمات طاقة عالمية. الآن، يقوم المتداولون بتسعير أكثر من 50% فرصة لرفع الفائدة مرة أخرى في ديسمبر، مع احتمالات تزداد أكثر نحو العام القادم. أكد البنك على مهمته إعاد CPI إلى النطاق المستهدف 2-3% مع الحفاظ على gains التوظيف، معترفاً بأن الصدمات العرضية المستمرة قد تتطلب نمواً أبطأ في الطلب والتوظيف. أكد الأعضاء على الحاجة إلى استقرار التضخم المتوسطي عند الهدف، حتى لو كانت بعض الاستمرارية خارج نطاق السيطرة النقدية. كما أشار البنك إلى أن انخفاض أسعار المنازل قد يثقل كاهل إنفاق الأسر أكثر من المتوقع، مضيفاً مخاطر هبوطية بينما يعمق سوق الإسكان في أستراليا الانكماش ويتراجع ثقة المستهلكين أمام تكاليف الاقتراض العالية والتضخم القوي.

অস্ট্রেলিয়া কেন্দ্রীয় ব্যাংক দুটি সপ्तাহ আগে মुद्रাস্ফীতি ঝুঁকির কারণে মূল বয়দাহার ৪.৬% বাড়ি দিয়েছে, সতর্কতা দিয়েছে যে দেরি করা costly হতে পারে। রিজার্ভ ব্যাংক অব অস্ট্রেলিয়া মূল্য বাড়ির উন্নয়ন চাপ এবং চলমান মধ্যপশ্চিম øst সংঘর্ষকে তার সিদ্ধান্তের মূল প্রভাব হিসেবে উল্লেখ করেছে, এখানে নোট করেছেন যে ভবিষ্যৎ বয়দাহার গতি মुद्रাস্ফীতি প্রবণতা এবং Exchange rate প্রভাব पर নির্ভর করবে। RBA এই বছর বিকসিত অর্থনীতির মধ্যে সবচেয়ে আক্রমণাত্মক টাইটনিং ক্যাম্পেইন চালু করেছে, উধার borrowing cost ১ পয়েন্ট বেড়ালে উচ্চ মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators মulators 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El banco central de Australia elevó su tasa de interés clave a 4.6% hace dos semanas debido a los riesgos de inflación crecientes, advirtiendo que retrasar la acción podría ser costoso. El Banco de Reserva de Australia citó presiones de precios al alza y el conflicto continuo en el Medio Oriente como influencias clave en su decisión, señalando que futuros movimientos de tasas dependerán de las tendencias de inflación y los impactos en el tipo de cambio. El RBA ha implementado la campaña de endurecimiento más agresiva entre las economías desarrolladas este año, aumentando los costos de endeudamiento en 1 punto porcentual para combatir la inflación elevada que comenzó antes del ataque de EE.

UU.-Israel a Irán provocó choques energéticos globales. Los operadores ahora cotizan con más del 50% de probabilidad de otra subida en diciembre, con probabilidades que aumentan aún más hacia el próximo año. El banco enfatizó su mandato de devolver el CPI al objetivo del 2-3%, mientras preserva los empleos, aunque reconoció que los persistentes choques de suministro pueden requerir un crecimiento más lento en la demanda y el empleo.

Los miembros subrayaron la necesidad de estabilizar la inflación a mediano plazo en el objetivo, incluso si cierta persistencia proviene de factores fuera del control de la política monetaria. El RBA también señaló que la caída de los precios de las viviendas podría pesar más de lo esperado en el gasto familiar, sumando riesgos a la baja a medida que el mercado inmobiliario australiano se profundiza y la confianza del consumidor disminuye ante altos costos de endeudamiento y fuerte inflación.

La banque centrale australienne a relevé son taux directeur à 4,6% il y a deux semaines en raison des risques d'inflation croissante, en avertissant que le retard pourrait être coûteux. La Banque des Réserves d'Australie a cité des pressures de prix à la hausse et le conflit au Moyen-Orient comme influences clés de sa décision, notant que les futurs mouvements de taux dépendront des tendances de l'inflation et des impacts sur le taux de change. Le RBA a mis en place la campagne d'assouplissement la plus agressive parmi les économies développées cette année, augmentant les coûts d'emprunt de 1 point de pourcentage pour combattre une inflation élevée qui a débuté avant l'attaque États-Unis-Israël sur l'Iran, provoquant des chocs énergétiques mondiaux.

Les traders placent maintenant plus de 50% de chances d'une nouvelle hausse en décembre, avec des cotes qui augmentent encore davantage l'année prochaine. La banque a souligné son mandat de ramener le CPI à l'objectif 2-3% tout en préservant les gains d'emplois, bien qu'elle ait reconnu que les chocs d'offre persistants peuvent nécessiter une croissance plus lente de la demande et de l'emploi. Les membres ont souligné la nécessité de stabiliser l'inflation à moyen terme à l'objectif, même si certaines persistances proviennent de facteurs hors du contrôle de la politique monétaire.

La banque a également noté que la baisse des prix de l'immobilier pourrait peser davantage que prévu sur les dépenses des ménages, ajoutant des risques à la baisse alors que le marché immobilier australien s'enfonce et que la confiance des consommateurs diminue face à des coûts d'emprunt élevés et une forte inflation.

ऑस्ट्रेलिया के केंद्रीय बैंक ने मुद्रास्फीति के बढ़ते जोखिमों के कारण दो हफ्ते पहले अपनी प्रमुख ब्याज दर 4.6% कर दी है, चेतावनी देते हुए कि देरी से कार्रवाई महंगी साबित हो सकती है। रिजर्व बैंक ऑफ ऑस्ट्रेलिया ने कीमतों में बढ़ते दबाव और चल रहे मध्य पूर्व संघर्ष को अपने निर्णय के प्रमुख प्रभाव के रूप में उद्धृत किया है, यह नोट करते हुए कि भविष्य की दरें मुद्रास्फीति के रुझान और विनिमय दर प्रभावों पर निर्भर करेंगी। RBA ने इस साल विकसित अर्थव्यवस्थाओं के बीच सबसे आक्रामक कसने अभियान लागू किया है, उधार लेने की लागत 1 प्रतिशत बिंदु बढ़ाकर उच्च मुद्रास्फीति से निपटाया है, जो अमेरिका-इजरायल पर ईरान के हमले द्वारा triggered वैश्विक ऊर्जा झटकों से पहले शुरू हुई थी। व्यापारी अब दिसंबर में एक और वृद्धि की संभावना से अधिक than 50% को मूल्यांकन कर रहे हैं, जबकि अगले वर्ष में संभावनाएं और बढ़ रही हैं। बैंक ने CPI को 2-3% के लक्ष्य पर लौटाने का अपना mandato दोहराया है जबकि नौकरियों को बनाए रखने के लिए, हालांकि यह स्वीकार किया है कि लगातार आपूर्ति झटकों को मांग और रोजगार में धीमी वृद्धि की आवश्यकता हो सकती है। सदस्यों ने मध्यम अवधि में मुद्रास्फीति को लक्ष्य पर स्थिर करने की आवश्यकता पर जोर दिया है, भले ही कुछ स्थिरता मुद्रा नीति के नियंत्रण से परे कारकों से आए। RBA ने यह भी नोट किया कि घर की कीमतों में गिरावट घरेलू खर्च पर अधिक भारी पड़ सकती है, जैसा कि ऑस्ट्रेलिया के आवास बाजार की मंदी गहरी होती जा रही है और उच्च उधार लेने की लागत और मजबूत मुद्रास्फीति के बीच उपभोक्ता विश्वास में गिरावट आई है।

澳大利亚央行两周前将关键利率上调至4.6%，因通胀风险上升，并警告延误行动可能代价高昂。澳大利亚储备银行引用了价格上行压力和持续的中东冲突作为其决定的关键影响因素，并指出未来的利率走势将取决于通胀趋势和汇率影响。RBA今年实施了有史以来最激进的紧缩周期之一，将借款成本上调1个百分点，以对抗在美以色列对伊朗袭击引发全球能源冲击之前就已开始的高通胀。交易员现在预计12月再次加息的概率超过50%，随着进入明年，概率进一步上升。银行强调其使命将CPI恢复至2-3%的目标，同时保住就业增长，尽管它承认持久的供给冲击可能需要需求和就业的较慢增长。成员们强调了在中期通胀目标上保持稳定的必要性，即使其中一些持久性来自货币政策之外的因素。RBA还注意到，房价下跌可能比预期更重地压制家庭支出，随着澳大利亚住房市场衰退加剧和消费者信心因高借款成本和强通胀而下降，这增加了下行风险。