Midterms and the market

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.

Hakyung Kim reports that the 10-year Treasury yield has held steady around 5.25 per cent, with stocks steady and gold catching a bid. The US midterm elections are a little over a month away; Republicans currently control both chambers, but consensus holds that Democrats will retake the House while Republicans keep the Senate, with Kalshi pricing in a clean Democratic sweep. Gregory Daco of EY-Parthenon notes that a split Congress tends to limit fiscal action unless a recession forces bipartisan support.

If Republicans lose unified House control, a defence-focused reconciliation bill could pass before the new Congress is sworn in, with President Donald Trump requesting $350bn — roughly 0.3 per cent of GDP annually, per Elias Haddad of Brown Brothers Harriman, unlikely to shift Fed rate expectations. A Republican sweep could produce a reconciliation bill exceeding $1tn, with Trump's $5,000 per adult payouts alone costing $1.3tn, which Michael McLean at Barclays says would support growth, pressure rates higher, and create the most risk-on outcome for credit. Full Democratic control recalls 2006, when fiscal policy loosened alongside Fed rate cuts, though that comparison is imperfect without an imminent crisis.