India Inc. Faces Higher Borrowing Costs as Short-Term Yields Surge

India Inc. Faces Higher Borrowing Costs as Short-Term Yields Surge Pratigya Vajpayee Rate-hike bets and RBI’s liquidity withdrawal are driving up funding costs. Good morning... I’m Pratigya Vajpayee in Mumbai, where calls for interest-rate hikes are growing louder.

The Reserve Bank of India is widely expected to raise rates on Oct. 7. Expectations for tighter monetary policy, coupled with the central bank’s efforts to drain excess cash from the banking system, have sent short-term bond yields sharply higher. That’s pushing up borrowing costs for companies and adding another headwind for India’s beleaguered stock market, as we write below.

The benchmark Nifty 50 fell for a third straight session Wednesday and, barring a miracle today, it is set to cap its longest weekly losing streak in nearly 25 years (local markets are shut Friday). Global funds sold $3.1 billion of Indian shares last month through Sept. 29, and a quick return of overseas money looks unlikely given elevated oil prices and rising global bond yields. Asian stocks and bonds have declined in early Thursday trading while Treasuries held losses as elevated oil prices kept inflation concerns alive.

In today’s newsletter, we write about: India’s five-year bonds have just capped their worst quarter in more than four years as traders ramped up bets on rate hikes, with the RBI’s liquidity-draining bond sales — concentrated in maturities of up to six years — adding to the pressure. Shorter-dated notes have been the worst hit in the latest India bond slump given their relatively high sensitivity to changes in liquidity and near-term interest-rate expectations. The rise in borrowing costs is already starting to impact companies, with two state-run Indian firms late last month withdrawing plans to raise $688 million through rupee bonds.

NSE options trading shows signs of revival The options market is showing signs of a rebound. Premium turnover for NSE index contracts rose Tuesday to its highest since April. While that was partly boosted by heavier trading around the monthly expiry, the pickup is welcome after regulatory curbs and higher costs damped activity.

Sustained momentum during weekly expiries could also support NSE’s shares, which hit a post-listing low of 1,761 rupees Wednesday. Derivatives activity is crucial for the exchange because weekly options on the Nifty 50 still account for about 40% of its revenue, its CEO told Bloomberg TV last week. The index inclusion curse Meanwhile, rival BSE has had little to cheer about, with its stock falling as much as 4% on Wednesday even as it joined the benchmark Nifty 50.

Recent index inclusions have had a rough ride, underscoring the market view that stocks enter benchmark gauges after much of their outperformance is already behind them. That can lead to subpar returns in the months that follow. Inter Globe Aviation and Max Healthcare Institute fell about 30% and 14%, respectively, in the six months after their inclusion last September.

BSE faces other challenges too. Derivatives volumes have been falling amid regulatory curbs, while macro-driven volatility and the new closing auction could weigh on cash-market volumes as well. Hotel demand to stay strong: Motilal India’s hotel industry is continuing to see healthy demand as domestic travel remains strong, while conferences, corporate events and destination weddings are also helping fill rooms.

Revenue per available room is expected to have risen about 10% to 12% in the quarter ended September, according to Motilal Oswal, helped also by higher room rates. The brokerage is positive on the sector over the next two to three years, as demand is likely to stay ahead of new room supply, giving hotels scope to keep raising rates. Top picks: Indian Hotels, Lemon Tree, and Ventive.

The September derivatives rollover was a mixed bag, according to Axis Securities. Nifty rollover came in at about 74%, below the previous expiry and its recent averages, suggesting traders stayed cautious...

印度企业面临更高的借贷成本，短期收益率飙升

Pratigya Vajpayee

利率上调押注和印度央行的流动性撤回正在推高融资成本。早上好……我是孟买的Pratigya Vajpayee，呼吁加息的声音日益高涨。印度储备银行预计将于10月7日加息。对紧缩货币政策的预期，加上央行努力从银行体系中抽走多余现金，已导致短期债券收益率大幅上升。这正在推高企业的借贷成本，并为印度饱受打击的股市增添又一逆风，如下文所述。基准Nifty 50指数周三连续第三个交易日下跌，除非今天出现奇迹，否则将创下近25年来最长的周度下跌纪录（当地市场周五休市）。上个月至9月29日，全球基金出售了31亿美元的印度股票，鉴于油价高企和全球债券收益率上升，海外资金迅速重返的可能性不大。周四早盘，亚洲股债下跌，美国国债价格走低，高企的油价令通胀担忧持续存在。在今天的简报中，我们关注：印度五年期债券刚刚录得四年来最差的一个季度，交易员加大了对加息的押注，印度央行通过流动性抽紧的债券销售（集中在六年期及以下到期债券）进一步加剧了压力。在最近的印度债券下跌中，短期债券受到的冲击最大，因为它们对流动性变化和近期利率预期变化的敏感度相对较高。借贷成本上升已经开始影响企业，两家印度国有企业上月底撤回了通过卢比债券筹集6.88亿美元的计划。

NSE期权交易出现复苏迹象

期权市场正显现出反弹迹象。周二，NSE指数合约的保费成交量升至4月份以来的最高水平。虽然这在一定程度上得益于月度到期日的交易量增加，但在监管限制和成本上升抑制了活动之后，这一回升是受欢迎的。在每周到期日期间持续的动能也可能支持NSE的股价，该股周三跌至上市后最低点1,761卢比。衍生品活动对交易所至关重要，因为Nifty 50的每周期权仍占其收入的约40%，其CEO上周告诉彭博电视。

指数纳入的诅咒

与此同时，竞争对手BSE几乎没有值得欢呼的理由，其股价周三下跌了多达4%，尽管它被纳入了基准Nifty 50指数。最近的指数纳入经历坎坷，凸显了市场观点，即股票在进入基准指数时，其大部分超额表现已经过去。这可能导致在接下来的几个月中回报不佳。Inter Globe Aviation和Max Healthcare Institute在去年9月纳入后六个月内分别下跌了约30%和14%。BSE也面临其他挑战。在监管限制下，衍生品交易量正在下降，而宏观驱动的波动性和新的收盘拍卖可能对现金市场交易量造成压力。

酒店需求保持强劲：Motilal India

印度的酒店业继续看到健康的需求，因为国内旅行保持强劲，会议、企业活动和目的地婚礼也有助于填补客房。根据Motilal Oswal的数据，在截至9月的季度中，每间可用客房收入预计将增长约10%至12%，这还得益于更高的房价。该经纪公司对该行业在未来两到三年内持乐观态度，因为需求可能继续领先于新房供应，使酒店有空间继续提高价格。

首选：Indian Hotels、Lemon Tree和Ventive。

根据Axis Securities的数据，九月份的衍生品展期喜忧参半。Nifty展期率约为74%，低于上一次到期日和其近期平均水平，表明交易员保持谨慎……

FAQ Q: 是什么推动了印度企业借贷成本的上升？

FAQ A: 利率上调预期和印度央行的流动性撤回正在推高融资成本，导致短期债券收益率大幅上升，从而增加了企业的借贷成本。