Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 4:30 PM ET
Energy & Commodities
Oil futures surged 4.2% to settle above $100 a barrel for the first time since August 2022 as millions of barrels remain trapped in the Persian Gulf, creating the largest oil market disruption in history. The Iran war's impact is forcing producers to slash production and close ports, with analysts now forecasting longer-lasting upheaval rather than a quick resolution. In response, Brazil cut fuel taxes to shield consumers from surging global prices while introducing a levy on crude oil exports to offset the impact. Meanwhile, US residential heating oil prices jumped above $5 a gallon, the highest since November 2022, as the conflict strains global diesel and crude flows critical for home heating.
Fixed Income & Banking
The Federal Reserve and other financial regulators plan to ease capital requirements, proposing to loosen some planned rules on how much capital banks must hold in reserve to mitigate risks. This comes as Morgan Stanley shares fell alongside top asset managers after the bank limited withdrawals from one of its private credit funds. The European Central Bank is confronting another bout of war-induced inflation, though officials say this time is probably different and they're better positioned to respond. In the municipal bond market, Hilton Head Island seeks $35 million in bonds to fund a new fire headquarters, testing investor appetite amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Technology & AI
Tether Holdings' Chief Investment Officer Richard Heathcote is stepping down after overseeing the vast reserves backing its main stablecoin and a deals spree involving everything from soccer clubs to humanoid robots. In AI infrastructure, Voya Financial is limiting data center credit investing on AI demand worries, as technology companies have borrowed billions to fuel rapid expansion but face risks of demand plateauing before debts are paid. Meanwhile, McKinsey rushed to fix an AI system after a hacker exposed flaws, though the consultancy says it found "no evidence" that confidential client information was compromised.
Equities & Market Sentiment
Bond traders ceased fully pricing in a Fed rate cut this year as rising oil prices stoke inflation expectations, with even one quarter-point cut now uncertain. The AI trade is separating Wall Street's winners and losers, with a Point72 team scoring hundreds of millions in gains while a smaller firm closes after losing money on software stocks. In electric vehicles, Rivian's more-affordable model will debut with a $57,990 price tag, though shoppers will have to wait until at least 2027 for an SUV under $50,000. Lucid plans to launch three new models, including two SUVs called Cosmos and Earth, as part of a midsize-vehicle expansion.
Geopolitics & Trade
The US spent $11.3 billion in the first week of war with Iran, according to officials who gave lawmakers the most detailed assessment yet of the expense. Russia is raking in $150 million daily in extra revenue from surging oil prices as tankers carrying Russian oil head to India, boosting Vladimir Putin's war chest. In Latin America, Chile's new president José Antonio Kast marks a shift toward conservatism and pro-Trump alignment in the region. Meanwhile, Brazil's soybean shipments failed inspections, raising concerns about potential disruptions to crucial trade with China at a sensitive time.
Private Markets & Real Estate
Blackstone arranged a $1.2 billion credit facility for Air Trunk's expansion into Japanese data centers, part of a broader push by private equity into AI infrastructure assets across Asia-Pacific. In private credit, Tikehau's head said the market has become "too noisy", comparing current turmoil to getting stuck at an event you want to leave but can't. Private credit funds are now bracing for battles with major banks over "back leverage" as they face unprecedented investor exodus and defaulting borrowers. In commercial real estate, Equinor sees little capacity to boost Norwegian natural gas output to offset Iran war disruptions to LNG supply.
Currencies & International Markets
Institutional investors are buying US dollars at the strongest level in nearly two years as Middle East conflict drives demand for safe-haven assets, according to State Street. Angola's central bank kept its benchmark rate at 17.5%, pausing for the first time since August after oil prices surged due to the US-Israel war on Iran. The European Commission is considering relaxing carbon-permit rules and allowing more state aid as part of an emergency plan to cut spiking power prices. In Africa, Pepkor is seeking a banking chief as the continent's biggest clothing seller plans to open branches using its store network to reach lower-income customers.
Financial Services & Regulation
The Commodity Futures Trading Commission issued new guidance on prediction market manipulation, asking exchanges to engage with regulators before opening certain markets vulnerable to manipulation. Exchange CEOs urged review of easy listings in prediction markets, calling for examination of the process that allowed platforms to grow quickly by listing financial contracts without explicit regulatory approval. In the UK, Tesla received a license to supply electricity, threatening further disruption to the retail energy sector after a decade of upheaval. Meanwhile, the UK government faces criticism over its "bungled" crypto Isa policy, with digital investments restricted to niche Innovative Finance Isas starting next month.
Corporate Finance & M&A
Wells Fargo, Barclays, and JPMorgan will split £83 million ($110.8 in fees for their work on the sale of UK asset manager Schroders Plc. Amazon.com seized a brief window for a $54 billion global bond sale as the Iran war intensified, with banks pitching the company as a safe bet in an increasingly unpredictable world. In distressed assets, CF Industries shares hit record highs as fertilizer markets tighten, with the escalating Middle East conflict threatening global supplies of nitrogen-based crop nutrients. The Port of Los Angeles saw container traffic rise 3% in February as importers brought in goods ahead of the Lunar New Year when many Asian factories pause production.