Public Markets 8-Hour Briefing
×Last updated: March 12, 2026, 11:32 AM ET
Energy Markets & Geopolitics
Oil prices surged past $100 as the Iran war triggered the largest supply disruption in history, with the International Energy Agency slashing its supply forecast after 7.5% of global production was halted. The Strait of Hormuz crisis pushed Brent crude to a 2026 high as traders priced in prolonged Middle East instability, while emerging-market currencies hit record lows against the dollar as the traditional oil-EM correlation reversed. India's central bank raised hedging costs as the rupee tumbled to record lows, and the country is now negotiating safe passage for 20 tankers through the Strait of Hormuz. Meanwhile, Qatar Aluminum reversed full shutdown plans, maintaining 60% capacity after confirming continued operations would be possible.
Global Financial Markets
U.S. stock futures dropped 0.3% before Thursday's open as the Middle East conflict intensified, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow all falling sharply. The dollar strengthened to 2026 highs as investors sought safe havens, while government bond yields climbed on inflation fears from sustained energy price spikes. Long-term Treasury yields approached 4.9% as traders priced in larger deficits from war spending, with the 30-year bond under pressure amid concerns over budget sustainability. In Asia, foreigners sold record Japanese stocks as risk-off sentiment dominated, while German 10-year yields hit 2023 highs on inflation concerns.
Corporate & Investment News
Airbnb prepared a high-grade bond debut as convertible maturities approached, while Charlesbank Capital Partners agreed to buy a C$200 million stake in Canada's Overbay Capital. Deutsche Bank warned of commercial real estate risks and raised its bonus pool 6.6% despite mixed performance, while ex-employees sought $1 billion over the Paschi case. Oracle allocated an extra $500 million for restructuring costs as AI models enabled software job cuts, and Voya Financial limited data center credit amid AI demand concerns. In the IPO market, NSE India selected 20 bankers for its $2.5 billion listing, while Indian firms pulled $2.1 billion of bond sales due to widening credit premiums.
Economic Data & Policy
The U.S. trade deficit narrowed in January as imports dipped and exports rose before Supreme Court tariff rulings. The first week of war cost $11.3 billion, with officials providing the most detailed assessment yet of military expenses. Turkey's central bank paused rate cuts due to inflationary pressures from energy prices, while Angola kept rates at 17.5% after pausing its hiking cycle. Senegal made $471 million in bond payments ahead of Friday's deadline to avoid default, and India asked China for urea supplies as Middle East gas shortages threatened fertilizer production.
Market Sentiment & Strategy
Legendary investor Leon Cooperman warned markets were overpriced given geopolitical risks, while Schwab's CEO noted Gen Z's dip-buying behavior as a new generation of investors entered markets. Stock traders hedged for prolonged volatility as the Iran conflict showed no signs of de-escalation, and exchange CEOs called for review of prediction market listing processes. The AI trade separated Wall Street winners and losers, with Point72 scoring hundreds of millions in gains while smaller firms closed after software stock losses. In private markets, Blue Owl defended its $1.4 billion loan sale against claims of hidden incentives, as investors worried about private credit risks beyond just lenders.
Sector-Specific Developments
In technology, McKinsey rushed to fix AI systems after a hacker exposed flaws, while Tesla received a UK electricity supply license for operations in England, Scotland, and Wales. Tesla China shipments rebounded in February despite industry weakness, though Li Auto posted narrow profits amid deteriorating sales. In autos, Honda expects a $15.7 billion hit from EV strategy reassessment, swinging to its first annual loss since the 1950s, while China's auto sales dropped on Lunar New Year effects and cooling demand. In retail, Dick's Sporting Goods reported higher sales with progress on Foot Locker turnaround, but Dollar General shares sank as growth outlook slowed. European e-commerce firm Zalando shares jumped after announcing a buyback and Levi's partnership.