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BofA: European Debt Buyers' Regret

Bloomberg Markets •
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Investors who loaded up on European and UK government bonds in recent months are likely regretting that decision after a sharp selloff, according to Bank of America. Findings of a survey by the US bank showed respondents added to duration longs since the beginning of August and stuck with them, despite becoming less positive on the outlook for rates. Yields have shot higher as spikes in energy prices fan inflation fears, a move exacerbated by a selloff in other bond markets globally.

“The gap between duration exposures and views is at record highs in EUR and GBP. Buyers’ regret is pronounced,” strategists including Ralf Preusser wrote in a note published Friday.

“This would help explain the extent of the selloff in both gilts and bunds on the repricing of central bank expectations this week, especially since most investors continue to believe that the ECB will have to reverse policy next year,” the BofA strategists added.

The moves have sent yields to levels not seen in decades. France’s 10-year yield is trading at 4.46%, a financial crisis era high, while Germany’s benchmark rose to the highest since 2009 this week. Gilts were also swept up in the selloff, sending the 30-year yield to nearly 6%.