U.S. natural gas futures recovered Monday losses as softening production readings and stronger LNG feedgas offset declining weather-driven demand. Dutch TTF front-month gas futures declined 2.5% to 77.55 euros per MWh, extending last week's pullback, while UK NBP wholesale gas dropped 2.91% to 192.36 pence per therm near multi-week lows. European and UK wholesale natural gas benchmarks moved lower as traders reacted to signs that energy supply risks around the Persian Gulf were easing. Market participants cited rerouted LNG and crude flows around Persian Gulf choke points helping deflate European prompt gas prices. The benchmark Dutch front-month TTF contract declined 2.5%, trading at 77.55 euros per megawatt-hour (MWh), extending a multi-session retreat recorded last week. In the UK, the equivalent NBP wholesale gas contract dropped 2.91% to 192.36 pence per therm, hovering near multi-week lows. Key Gas Benchmarks Contract Region Move Price Front-month TTF Eurozone-2.5% 77.55 euros per MWh NBP wholesale gas Great Britain-2.91% 192.36 pence per therm

The European Central Bank reported that wholesale gas price changes now pass through to consumer inflation within 1 to 3 months in over half of euro area economies, representing a notable acceleration compared with 2022. This shift reflects post-crisis market liberalization, adoption of flexible pricing frameworks, and greater use of shorter fixed-term contracts. However, electricity prices have become less sensitive to natural gas movements as renewable generation expands, reducing fossil fuel influence on power costs. Wholesale gas prices remain up more than 140% versus a year ago due to Iranian war risks and supply disruptions, keeping headline euro zone inflation above 3% and challenging ECB policy decisions.

Despite ongoing Persian Gulf military activity, LNG and crude tankers are successfully using alternative export pathways, including redirected overland pipelines and ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's coast. These logistical workarounds have reduced immediate fears of supply disruptions, easing the extreme risk premia that previously elevated energy trades.